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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 12:34 am 
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-BO- wrote:
FrankC wrote:
-BO- wrote:
For those hacks who think a certain number choice comes up more frequently than others, are you aware that BT now randomly scrambles the answer order throughout the network to eliminate using the mobile PM to cheat?

Without this crutch to lean on, I'd say the numerologists won't be able to crack 10k in CD now.


Number 3 still works fo me.

And over the long haul you'll be right exactly 20% of the time.


Actually I am right about 50% of the time or more. When the 2 correct possible answers are between 3 and some other number, I go with 3.

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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:14 am 
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I occasionally play at a bar called the Bungalow along the Minnesota-Wisconsin border. There was an occasional player who went under the user name HONI. There was a lady named Mary who was a more serious player. If the answer turned out to be "1" and Mary didn't choose it HONI would yell "Its one Mary! It's always one." HONI passed away about five years ago, but if anybody picks one as their default answer they say they are using the "Rule of Hone."


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 1:41 pm 
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-BO- wrote:
FrankC wrote:
-BO- wrote:
For those hacks who think a certain number choice comes up more frequently than others, are you aware that BT now randomly scrambles the answer order throughout the network to eliminate using the mobile PM to cheat?

Without this crutch to lean on, I'd say the numerologists won't be able to crack 10k in CD now.


Number 3 still works fo me.

And over the long haul you'll be right exactly 20% of the time.

More than that. About 22% I'd say, since a good chunk of BT's programming offers only 4 answers. Too lazy to math it all out right now, though

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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:46 am 
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It depends on what type of thing is being asked. For example, I often can correctly guess ones that I don't know at all based on the structures of foreign languages. Like if it asks where some mountain is (or something), often the regions of the world are varied enough to safely make an uneducated guess. I don't pick a number blindly more often than others just to pick it. Then again I haven't read the literature on that sort of thing. Though when I am clueless, as soon as I pick I already have fingers on the other buttons.

But yeah I guess my method is trying to find a clue in the question more than anything else.


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:39 pm 
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mrgray wrote:
It depends on what type of thing is being asked. For example, I often can correctly guess ones that I don't know at all based on the structures of foreign languages. Like if it asks where some mountain is (or something), often the regions of the world are varied enough to safely make an uneducated guess. I don't pick a number blindly more often than others just to pick it. Then again I haven't read the literature on that sort of thing. Though when I am clueless, as soon as I pick I already have fingers on the other buttons.

But yeah I guess my method is trying to find a clue in the question more than anything else.


Just push #3 in Countdown.


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:47 pm 
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scar wrote:
Just push #3 in Countdown.

Uncle Scar must be bored trying to stir the pot with that comment! :D


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2012 1:08 pm 
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:twisted:


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Tue Jul 09, 2013 7:16 pm 
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We, at the former Buzztime location, Michael Anthony's in Berwyn Illinois, used to call picking 3 on a question you didn't the answer to, "Using the Pechous theory". Bob Pechous, a regular Buzztime player for many years, passed away today after a long bout with Alzheimer's. Bob aquired most of his points in Springfield where he served as an Illinois State Rep. After the more modernization (internet registration, etc) of Buzztime, Bob slowed down his play. When I started as a Buzztime player, I never thought I'd reach as many Players Plus points as he had. RIP Bob, you will be missed.


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 Post subject: I'm very sorry to hear about your friend, Bob...
PostPosted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:51 am 
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vapid wrote:
We, at the former Buzztime location, Michael Anthony's in Berwyn Illinois, used to call picking 3 on a question you didn't the answer to, "Using the Pechous theory". Bob Pechous, a regular Buzztime player for many years, passed away today after a long bout with Alzheimer's. Bob aquired most of his points in Springfield where he served as an Illinois State Rep. After the more modernization (internet registration, etc) of Buzztime, Bob slowed down his play. When I started as a Buzztime player, I never thought I'd reach as many Players Plus points as he had. RIP Bob, you will be missed.


Vapid, I'm very sorry to hear about your friend, Bob. I've had my sorrow too. Several of those, whom I played trivia with have passed away. As we get older death of our friends becomes more common. I'm old, and hoping that I'm not the next to go, but who knows?

p.s. I always hit 3, when I have no idea on a question, and none of the other tricks work, but a friend of mine, KARP, always hits 1. I really don't think it makes any difference what number you always hit, when you don't know the answer. If you keep hitting the same one every time, you are likely to get it right about 20% of the time on games that have five possible answers.

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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:08 pm 
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Rumor that the BWW-West St Paul MN is about to shutter reminds me of a nurse who used to play there as MOTHER. I sat next to her one day and learned that her method of play was to hit the #3 key while reading the answers, and to switch as seemed appropriate. The coinage, "Mother's Rule," was too obvious to repress, and I infected J A K, as well as a number of other locals with it. So a few months later I'm sitting in the Damon's - Bristol VA, and the player next to me mutters, "I should have gone with Mother's Rule." (!) I asked him if he were from Minnesota, but no: like Chrissy Hynde, he was from Ohio.


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 Post subject: "Academy of Football" guessing method...
PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2015 8:08 pm 
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This guessing method doesn't work every time, but my buddies and I have found that it works more often than you would think.

When you are playing the "Academy of Football", and get a question where the answers are the names of five colleges, and you don't have a clue, try this.

If one of the colleges has the word "State" in its name, go with it. You might be surprised how often you will be right.

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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Mon Oct 12, 2015 9:03 pm 
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A new guessing method I have been using is the Baseball method. Not being much of a sports person, I am usually playing the guessing game when a sports question is thrown my way. If I have no clue, and baseball, or a baseball term/player is an option, I go with that. So far it has worked about 80% of the time.

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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:03 am 
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mudee wrote:
A new guessing method I have been using is the Baseball method. Not being much of a sports person, I am usually playing the guessing game when a sports question is thrown my way. If I have no clue, and baseball, or a baseball term/player is an option, I go with that. So far it has worked about 80% of the time.

Each and every time somebody posts a system with percentages I'm going to post a version of the following.....

Some luckbox system that works 80% of the time so far eh? I'd say that means 4 out of 5. When it works 16 of the next 95 to average out for 20% or 1 of 5 then please post here again.

Pretty funny stuff this thread about what people think actually works.


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 Post subject: Re: "Academy of Football" guessing method...
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2015 12:07 pm 
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Cloudy wrote:
This guessing method doesn't work every time, but my buddies and I have found that it works more often than you would think.

When you are playing the "Academy of Football", and get a question where the answers are the names of five colleges, and you don't have a clue, try this.

If one of the colleges has the word "State" in its name, go with it. You might be surprised how often you will be right.


That did work pretty well that afternoon we played, about 4 games I think.


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2015 12:13 pm 
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-BO- wrote:
mudee wrote:
A new guessing method I have been using is the Baseball method. Not being much of a sports person, I am usually playing the guessing game when a sports question is thrown my way. If I have no clue, and baseball, or a baseball term/player is an option, I go with that. So far it has worked about 80% of the time.

Each and every time somebody posts a system with percentages I'm going to post a version of the following.....

Some luckbox system that works 80% of the time so far eh? I'd say that means 4 out of 5. When it works 16 of the next 95 to average out for 20% or 1 of 5 then please post here again.

Pretty funny stuff this thread about what people think actually works.


Bo, that reminds me of a night when our dear, departed friend GRS got on a little tear at the old TGIF-Louisville, saying " That's THREE Times in a row it was the longest answer !" very strongly.

Well, I was feeling a little feisty so the next question I bellowed our " That's one in a row that it is NOT the longest answer".

Well, time went on and after I said " That's 27 in a row that it is NOT the longest answer !" GRS said "Aw right just shut the @#$%& up, I won't say that again".

Next question it WAS the longest answer, and we just busted out laughing together and kept our mouths shut.


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2015 2:42 pm 
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Location: RTO's, Mesa AZ
-BO- wrote:
mudee wrote:
A new guessing method I have been using is the Baseball method. Not being much of a sports person, I am usually playing the guessing game when a sports question is thrown my way. If I have no clue, and baseball, or a baseball term/player is an option, I go with that. So far it has worked about 80% of the time.

Each and every time somebody posts a system with percentages I'm going to post a version of the following.....

Some luckbox system that works 80% of the time so far eh? I'd say that means 4 out of 5. When it works 16 of the next 95 to average out for 20% or 1 of 5 then please post here again.

Pretty funny stuff this thread about what people think actually works.


You don't have to use this method, I merely posted it because as the thread says its a "guessing" method. It works for me. In my case it has worked 79%-81% of the time. That is not saying it will work during a blood moon, or when the swallows are migrating to Capistrano.

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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Tue Oct 13, 2015 8:26 pm 
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-BO- wrote:
Some luckbox system that works 80% of the time so far eh? I'd say that means 4 out of 5. When it works 16 of the next 95 to average out for 20% or 1 of 5 then please post here again.

Pretty funny stuff this thread about what people think actually works.


I have a system that allows me to correctly guess about 90% of the time on non-Canadian topics.
I also have a system that allows me to correctly guess about 10% of the time on Canadian topics.
Fight that math, smart guy...


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Wed Oct 14, 2015 2:13 am 
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-BO- wrote:
mudee wrote:
A new guessing method I have been using is the Baseball method. Not being much of a sports person, I am usually playing the guessing game when a sports question is thrown my way. If I have no clue, and baseball, or a baseball term/player is an option, I go with that. So far it has worked about 80% of the time.

Each and every time somebody posts a system with percentages I'm going to post a version of the following.....

Some luckbox system that works 80% of the time so far eh? I'd say that means 4 out of 5. When it works 16 of the next 95 to average out for 20% or 1 of 5 then please post here again.

Pretty funny stuff this thread about what people think actually works.

This is not about crazy voodoo guessing, though; it's an educated guess based on past experience with BT questions and knowledge about the question writers. Baseball is the answer to a disproportionate number of sports questions, especially about events prior to 2000 or so. If a question asks what [dude I've never heard of] made headlines for in [19XX], as one did the other day, and there's only one choice related to baseball, it's usually the answer. And if not "usually," then at least it's the answer more than 20% of the time.

It is similar with the "longest answer" stratagem. We've noticed this in SciFiles especially. General laziness of the question writers dictates that they will spend less time coming up with distractors, so the longest or most complicated answer (i.e., two or more middle names, initials or hyphenated names) is the correct one more than 20% of the time. Often in SciFiles, that is also the one author, for example, that you've never heard of. Sure, it's still better to know the answer, but if you don't, this gives a competitive edge over a random guessing method.


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:22 pm 
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If I'm playing Countdown, when in doubt, I will press 3.

Exception: if one of the answers is the TV show, The Simpsons, press on that!

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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:55 pm 
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SEKA wrote:
If I'm playing Countdown, when in doubt, I will press 3.

Exception: if one of the answers is the TV show, The Simpsons, press on that!


Three is my number as well.


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:42 pm 
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SEKA wrote:
If I'm playing Countdown, when in doubt, I will press 3.

Exception: if one of the answers is the TV show, The Simpsons, press on that!


One guy I used to play with calls #3 a punter... but he now uses that number when he (UGH) blind plays.

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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:56 am 
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other than 3, longest ansewer always seems to prevail, and in Sci-files it's never Orson Scott Card, except once lol


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 7:36 am 
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richte09 wrote:
other than 3, .....

Really?

Posted August 29, 2012
-BO- wrote:
For those hacks who think a certain number choice comes up more frequently than others, are you aware that BT now randomly scrambles the answer order throughout the network to eliminate using the mobile PM to cheat?


I always loved playing against those who always default to 3, was impossible to lose to them. If I didn't know the answer I could default to 3, they almost certainly wouldn't either and I'd pick up about 40 points due solely to reflexes. And if they believe in 3 they certainly wouldn't know more answers than I...... :lol: :D


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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:58 am 
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It seems that some people may not be aware that the groundbreaking and definitive piece of research on the question of the efficacy of guessing “three” was done more than 15 years ago now. The short-sighted snobs at The Annals of Improbable Research turned it down for publication at the time, so I posted a link to it here many years ago so that the world might know the results. I just discovered that that link no longer works, so I am posting the text of it below as a public service. As you can see, it is a bit dated in places ("NTN," "Wipeout," "Bennigan's," "Damon's," "more than three thousand dining and drinking establishments," etc.), but I believe the vital findings of this immensely important study still hold:


“The Super-Frequent-Three”—Myth or Reality?:
A Quantitative Analysis of a Popular NTN “Countdown” Strategy

By Anon


ABSTRACT
A statistical analysis of the frequency of answer number “3” in NTN “Countdown” games was performed to test the hypothesis that this answer occurs more frequently than other answers. This hypothesis was not proved, but potential ways in which this analysis may be used to enhance game-playing strategy and one’s quality of life are discussed.


INTRODUCTION
The National Trivia Network (NTN) is a popular pastime among tens of thousands of people in the United States and Canada. In more than three thousand dining and drinking establishments throughout North America, NTN players attempt to answer trivia questions for points, competing not only against other patrons in their own establishment, but players across the continent as well. Most NTN games are half-hour, 15-question contests in which trivia questions appear on a television screen with five multiple choice answers. Using a computerized “playmaker,” players choose answers for each question, having the ability to change their answers at any time. As the potential points count down from 1000 points, clues are offered to the correct answer. Thus, in answering questions, a premium is placed speed, and a good strategy rests on selecting the correct answer faster than your opponents, even if one’s first guess is incorrect.

Among dedicated players of these games, one of the most popular strategies is that of relying on “the three-hole”—in other words, choosing answer “3” at those times when one has no idea what the correct answer might be. This strategy is based on the widely-held perception that answer number “3” occurs significantly more frequently than the three times (20%) expected in a fifteen-question game. The purpose of this research was to test statistically the validity of this belief in the “super-frequent-three.”

METHODS
The NTN system hosts a number of different games, but the most frequently-featured are “Countdown” and “Wipeout.” As “Countdown” is by far the most common game (appearing more than a fifteen times a day as opposed to three or four times for “Wipeout”), and in order to control for any error that might result from combining data from different types of games, only “Countdown” games were considered for this analysis. In order to maintain consistency and eliminate the possibility of inter-observer error, only one person recorded the data from all games. Furthermore, because this data-collector was required to pay close attention to playing and recording data for every game, it was determined that he must refrain from consuming all but the smallest amount of intoxicating beverages. As these guidelines necessitated the voluntary participation of someone with no appreciable social life, the author was chosen to fulfill this function.

A total of 74 “Countdown” games were recorded between the dates of 8 July and 12 August 2002 at five NTN-hosting establishments in the greater Akron area (Annabell’s, Bennigan’s, Buffalo Wild Wings, Scorcher’s in the Valley, and a North Canton Damon’s). Cases were thrown out only when one of the answers in the game was demonstrably false. Two cases were eliminated in this manner, one because of an untrue final answer (which was also contrary to the final clue), and one because there was no correct answer among the given choices. These cases represented less than 3% of the total sample size. Because of the nature of the data and the directional nature of the hypothesis, a paired, one-tailed student’s “t” test was chosen as the main analytical tool for this experiment.

RESULTS
A table showing the cumulative totals and percentages for each number is presented below (Table 1). In the 72 cases studied, “3” appeared 225 times, compared with 205 times for “1,” 225 times for “2,” 214 times for “4,” and 211 times for “5.” In percentage terms, answers “2” and “3” appeared 21% of the time, answers “4” and “5” appeared 20% of the time, and answer “1” appeared 19% of the time.

Table 1
Frequency and Percentage of Each Answer for NTN “Countdown” Games
(n=72)

Answer 1 205 19%
Answer 2 225 21%
Answer 3 225 21%
Answer 4 214 20%
Answer 5 211 20%

The per-game averages and standard deviations of each answer appear in Table 2. The means range from 2.85 to 3.13, and the standard deviations from 1.46 to 1.56. A student’s-“t” test revealed that there was no statistically significant (∂=.05) difference between the frequency of answer “3” and any of the other answers (Table 3). The null hypothesis thus held, and the “three-hole thesis” was not proved.

Table 2
Mean and Standard Deviation for Each Answer in NTN
“Countdown” Games
(n=72)

Answer 1 mean: 2.85 sd: 1.46
Answer 2 mean: 3.13 sd: 1.54
Answer 3 mean: 3.13 sd: 1.50
Answer 4 mean: 2.97 sd: 1.56
Answer 5 mean: 2.93 sd: 1.43

Table 3
Student’s “t” Tests for Answer “3” Versus Other Answers in NTN “Countdown” Games
(paired, one-tailed, n=72)

3 vs. 1 "t"-value: 0.16
3 vs. 2 "t"-value: 0.50
3 vs. 4 "t"-value: 0.30
3 vs. 5 "t"-value: 0.25

Despite their nearly total disproof of the “three-hole” hypothesis, these data nevertheless might tempt the reader into believing that some answers occur significantly more or less frequently than should be expected. Answers “2” and “3,” for example, appeared 9 times more than the expected value of 216, and fully 20 times more often than Answer “1.” Such minor deviations (no more than 4% off of the expected value in all cases) are to be expected in any statistical analysis, but to cover all of our bases and appease the potential whiners in the crowd, a z-test between the actual frequency of all answers and their randomly-expected frequency of 3.0 revealed that no answer deviates significantly (P ≥ .95) from the expected (Table 4).

Table 4
Z-Test for Each Answer Versus Expected Value in NTN
“Countdown” Games
(two-tailed, sample standard deviation used, n=72)

Answer 1 P value: 0.813
Answer 2 P value: 0.245
Answer 3 P value: 0.240
Answer 4 P value: 0.560
Answer 5 P value: 0.660


DISCUSSION
Although this analysis did not prove “the three-hole” hypothesis, potentially valuable information regarding strategy may still be gleaned from these findings.

First, these data indicate that having a standard answer on which to fall back is not necessarily a bad idea. If one plays often and consistently chooses the same number for unknown answers, then as much as 21% of the time he or she will be rewarded with a “gift” correct answer. This is predicated on the assumption, of course, that the given number is not one of the possible answers that may safely be eliminated before the clues are given. This study demonstrates that any answer from “1” through “5” will do in pursuing this strategy, with no statistically significant difference between any of these answers.

Furthermore, the now disproved, but still overweening perception of the “super-frequent-3” may ironically prove to be useful strategically as well. Even though “3” does not come up more frequently than the other numbers, good strategy may still insist as using this number as one’s standard answer, particularly if one is leading the game. As this is already the strategy of many dedicated players, one can take advantage of this knowledge when a particularly difficult question comes up. If there is a good chance most of one’s close competitors are stumped by this question as well, one is less likely to give up points to the rest of the field if he or she guesses “3” along with the rest. Conversely, if one is behind, choosing any number other than “3” may be in order for the same question, as the person in the lead might be more likely to be guessing “3” as well, and this presents a challenger with the opportunity to gain points if a number other than “3” is the correct answer.

CONCLUSIONS
This analysis has conclusively demonstrated that answer number “3” does not occur with greater than expected frequency in NTN “Countdown” games. Nevertheless, the current study argues persuasively for several conclusions that may be useful to frequent NTN players.

First, having a standard answer for unknown questions is a sound strategy. Consistent choice of a particular number will reward the player with “gift” answers up to 21% of the time over a prolonged period of time.

Second, precisely because of the faulty perception of the “super-frequent-3,” choosing “3” as a fallback answer may still be a good idea if one is leading in a game. As the other players are more likely to be guessing this number as well, one is less likely to lose ground to one’s competitors if all are guessing the same number. Conversely, if one is behind, he or she may wish to risk guessing a different number in order to take advantage of the 79% chance that answer “3” is incorrect.

Last, this study emphatically confirms a final conclusion that has been suggested to the author by several independent sources--including fellow NTN players, family, and friends alike--both before and during the current research. If the reader understands the concepts presented herein; if he or she has read this research closely from beginning to end; if he or she is planning on using the results of this research to enhance game-playing strategy; then this is probably a very strong indication that the reader (like the author) ought to consider very strongly getting a real life already.

Acknowledgements:
The author would like to acknowledge and sincerely thank Dana, Emily, Kelly, Kendra, Tiffany, and Trish at Annabell’s; and Amy, Heather, Kim, and Sandy at Scorcher’s; who cheerfully served him endless “Cokes-with-no-ice” while he conducted this research.

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Anon
"He may seem like Mr. Rogers but a dark spirit lies beneath."


Last edited by ANON on Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: My guessing method
PostPosted: Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:22 am 
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There is no little irony in this topic being revived on Friday the 13th.

What is most useful when not knowing an answer is a strip. If a player can eliminate three of the possible answers (in a five-item drop-down box), then she should never get fewer than 600 points, effectively salvaging half of what would be lost when defaulting to the third clue. Since I'm TV-impaired, I frequently see questions regarding Actresses I Couldn't Pick Out of a Police Lineup, in reference to shows or movies I'd never heard of. Most of us have a category of question which we'd really not wish to see. When this happens, any angle which turns dismay or panic to intensified focus is good for one's scores. The heroine in a show regarding the dark arts is likely, among your five options, to be one of the two blondes, if blonde only by reputation. The villain in a costume drama is likely English, but among any five actors the one most likely to affect a plausible cockney accent.

The most flattering remark ever made to me by a fellow Buzztime player? "You're the only guy I've ever met who can guess his way to a fourteen thousand."

But was I, in fact, merely guessing?


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