When my home bar shut down on March 16, I had plenty of time to consider the probable course of the pandemic, and believed then it would probably peak around Independence Day, and then fade rapidly. Optimistically I hoped to be back at B-52 Burgers and Brew in early August. My fond expectations are still on track, but are derided by epidemiologists.
While following the trajectory of SARSCoV2 through Minnesota, I've been watching Youyang Gu's self-correcting AI model, as well as the IMHE model generated at the University of Washington. Following an early hicccup at IMHE, which failed miserably in April, the two models have fallen into uneasy accord. One current distinction: Youyang Gu (whose model is likely his PhD thesis) predicts that Minnesota shall have twice as many current infections in mid-August than at present; IMHE predicts a spike once schools reopen, in September.
In Minnesota, hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths are down, the mortality rolls only 30% of what they were a month ago. The Minnesota Department of Health reports spiking cases in ages 0-39, but to date, only 12 deaths in 20,000 confirmed cases within that demographic. The other 1,500 deaths are among those who, for the time being, might be content to Skype or Zoom their grandchildren. Statewide, JAN M's demographic enjoys a 35% mortality rate. But that's only among confirmed cases, which might under-represent the spread of the infection by a factor of 10.
The sweet spot, for the potential victim, is to take on low doses beneath the level of positive infection, but high enough to acquaint one's immune system to the threat.
My apartment house is next door to a long-term care facility which has accounted for a minimum of 120 infections, 40 of them among employees, and 38 deaths. (Those numbers are 3 weeks old.) Every now and again I wander around the grounds, picking up trash. Among the beer cans, water bottles, fast food or cigar wrappers, there's the occasional discarded face mask, and the hospital gloves. I treat all trash equally, without PPE.
Across the street is a convenience store where no more than 10% of the clientele wear face masks. The principal owner/manager recently took a two week vacation.
Life is a gamble. As I've advised my friends, they're all barred from my casino.
It's vitally important that public confidence be restored, but impossible to predict how that shall happen. A teaching moment, perhaps? Schools reopening in September, with everyone wearing face masks? If within that circuit there might be contact tracing?
There seems to be a consensus that the rate of transmission of SARSCoV2 is on the upswing. Whoever has been purchasing NTN Buzztime stock is playing the long game.
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